Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
